Egg Market Analysis（Sep 15）
Egg Market Analysis
Market Analysis
Today, quotations from major egg production regions rose frequently. The average price of red-shell eggs reached RMB 5.31/jin, while pink-shell eggs averaged RMB 5.43/jin, with a price spread of RMB 0.12. The overall average price across major production areas stood at RMB 5.32/jin, up RMB 0.10/jin compared to the previous trading day. The holiday effect continues to provide tail-end support, and inventory levels remain low across all supply chain links. Egg prices are likely to maintain a firm-to-stronger trend, though upside potential is limited, as transactions in high-price areas have already shown signs of slowing.
Market Price
Market Outlook
On the supply side, with the end of high-temperature weather, laying rates are gradually returning to normal. The number of newly laying hens continues to increase in September. However, most farmers remain bearish on the post-Mid-Autumn Festival market, and culling sentiment is rising on the breeding side, effectively offsetting the increase from new layers.
On the demand side, Mid-Autumn Festival stocking is nearing its end. Terminal retail and gift-box demand continue to be released, but the peak season for food processing enterprises is gradually winding down. With egg prices at elevated levels, traders are cautious in procurement, largely adopting a sell-then-buy approach and restocking only as needed.
Overall, as stocking concludes and demand enters a seasonal downturn while newly laying hens continue to come onstream, supply and demand will gradually loosen, and egg prices face downward correction pressure.
Futures Trend
On September 15, the main contract 2611 of egg futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) opened at 3,845, with a high of 3,845, a low of 3,763, and a settlement price of 3,798, down 91 points or 2.36%. Trading volume was 368,500 lots, and open interest stood at 285,222 lots.
Index Analysis
According to calculations by Lenglianduoduo, the domestic egg spot price index on September 15 stood at 5.394, up 0.086 compared to the previous working day.
