OECD: Middle East Conflict Weighs on Global Growth Prospects

　　Paris, March 26 (Xinhua) -- The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its latest economic outlook report on the 26th, predicting that the global economic growth rate will be 2.9% in 2026 and will slightly rebound to 3.0% in 2027. The report pointed out that the uncertainty in the Middle East poses a test to the resilience of the global economy. If energy prices remain high for a long time, it will significantly increase business costs, raise inflation levels, and drag down the prospects for global economic growth.

　　The report stated that before the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the global economy generally maintained resilience, with strong investment and production activities related to artificial intelligence technology, combined with fiscal policy support, keeping economic activities active. After the escalation of the conflict, the surge in energy prices and increased uncertainty in the situation raised costs and suppressed demand, to some extent offsetting the support brought by the continuation of previous economic momentum.

　　The report predicts that the U.S. economic growth rate will slow from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027. Dragged down by high energy prices, the eurozone's economic growth rate is expected to drop to 0.8% in 2026, and then, driven by increased defense spending, is expected to rebound to 1.2% in 2027.

　　In terms of inflation, medium-term inflation expectations have risen due to the surge in energy prices and supply chain disruptions. The inflation rate for the Group of Twenty (G20) countries is expected to be 1.2 percentage points higher than previously forecast, reaching 4.0% in 2026, and then falling back to 2.7% in 2027 as energy price pressures ease. The core inflation rate for developed economies in the G20 is expected to decrease from 2.6% in 2026 to 2.3% in 2027.

　　The report states that the current global economic outlook faces significant uncertainty. The above forecast data is based on the judgment that global energy supply disruptions will gradually ease after mid-2026. If exports from the Middle East continue to be obstructed, it may further push up energy prices, exacerbate shortages of key commodities, thereby raising inflation and suppressing growth.

　　The report emphasizes that in the context of energy price shocks, central banks in various countries need to remain vigilant to ensure stable inflation expectations and flexibly adjust monetary policy when necessary. Fiscally, precise relief should be provided, debt sustainability should be maintained, while improving spending efficiency and revenue capacity; strengthen financial regulation to prevent high valuations and risk transmission; enhance growth certainty by easing trade tensions and avoid export restrictions exacerbating inflation. In the medium to long term, improving energy efficiency and reducing dependence on fossil energy imports should be a priority direction to enhance economic resilience and alleviate cost pressures.