Eggs: Last Wave of Peak Season, Egg Prices "Holding Strong"

Egg Market Analysis

Today, egg prices in major production areas began to show a correction trend. The average price of red eggs stood at 5.32 yuan/jin, and the average price of pink eggs at 5.38 yuan/jin, with a price spread of 0.06 between red and pink eggs. Mid-Autumn Festival stocking has entered its final stage, and the demand-side pull is gradually weakening. Traders hold bearish expectations for the post-holiday market; to avoid price-drop risks, their purchasing sentiment has turned cautious, mostly adopting a buy-as-you-sell strategy with limited willingness to actively stock up. Sales performance varies across markets, and egg prices overall show a mixed pattern of stable and declining, lacking a unified directional guidance.

Egg Market Prices

Egg Market Outlook

From the Supply Side

Newly opened laying hen capacity remains overall stable with no significant fluctuations. Meanwhile, as temperatures gradually cool down, feed intake of laying hens is recovering, and the rate of egg weight increase has accelerated compared with the previous period. The egg supply structure is gradually shifting from medium-small codes toward large codes.

From the Demand Side

The pre-festival consumption peak has not yet fully arrived, and egg prices still have some support. However, traders are reluctant to purchase, and food factories are also reducing their procurement volumes. Whether the "last wave" of the peak season can hold up depends on terminal sales performance.

Comprehensive Outlook

After festival consumption is realized, demand will enter a seasonal decline period. Meanwhile, with newly opened production steadily releasing and egg weight increase accelerating, the supply side will see moderate incremental growth. The supply-demand relationship will gradually shift from tight to loose, and egg prices face correction pressure.

Egg Futures Trend

On September 18, the main contract 2611 of egg futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) opened at 3790, with a high of 3866, a low of 3764, and a settlement price of 3820, up 70/1.85%. Trading volume was 430,945 lots, and open interest was 294,565 lots.

Egg Price Index Analysis

According to data from Cold Chain Duoduo, the domestic egg spot price index on September 18 was 5.362, down 0.027 compared with the previous working day.