Eggs: Egg prices have peaked! A correction is imminent!
Egg Market Analysis
Today, egg prices in major producing areas fluctuated. The average price in major producing areas was 4.59 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.07 yuan/jin compared to the previous working day. The average price of red eggs was 4.58 yuan/jin, and the average price of pink eggs was 4.55 yuan/jin, a price difference of 0.03 yuan/jin. Egg prices saw a slight adjustment today, with the upward trend slowing.
The generally low inventory levels at all stages are the core logic supporting current egg prices, while there is also anticipation of price increases before the Dragon Boat Festival. However, with egg prices reaching such high levels, end-users are struggling and showing resistance, leading to a slowdown in sales. This is further compounded by the impact of rainy weather in many areas, resulting in localized weakness.
Egg Market Prices
Egg Market Outlook
From the supply side, the positive factor is that the number of newly laying hens is still relatively small. Although farmers are still reluctant to sell, there has been a slight increase compared to the number of hens being slaughtered, and all stages are maintaining light inventory levels. The negative factor remains the high inventory of laying hens.
From the demand side, there is bullish sentiment regarding stockpiling for the Dragon Boat Festival, but the current decline in end-user acceptance of high prices is particularly important, and the sales speed is expected to slow down compared to the previous period. Furthermore, the arrival of high temperatures and humidity will accelerate the seasonal decline in demand.
In summary, low inventory supports egg prices, but with the gradual release of new production capacity and the pressure from the plum rain season, prices will likely follow seasonal patterns and begin a period of high-level correction.
Egg Futures Trends
On May 25th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) egg futures main contract 2607 opened at 3966, reached a high of 3996, a low of 3876, and settled at 3942, down 81% (2.04%), with a trading volume of 1,052,393 lots and open interest of 284,006 lots.
Egg Index Analysis
According to data from Lenglianduoduo, the domestic egg spot price index on May 25th was 4.559, a decrease of 0.025 from the previous working day, a drop of 0.545%.
