Egg Daily: After Consecutive Rallies, the Egg Market Finally "Tires Out"

Egg Market Analysis

Prices in the major egg-producing areas were steady to lower today. The average price of red-shell eggs was RMB 5.19/jin, and that of pink-shell eggs RMB 5.09/jin, with the spread between the two widening slightly to RMB 0.10, and pink-shell quotes leading the decline. The average price in the main producing areas stood at RMB 5.17/jin, down RMB 0.01/jin from the previous trading day. Subtle changes emerged in the egg market today. After consecutive rallies, egg prices have begun to show signs of fatigue. By variety, pink-shell eggs moved at a generally mediocre pace of offtake and were the first to enter a downtrend, while red-shell eggs traded reasonably well and managed to hold steady for the near term. On the sentiment side, the persistently climbing egg prices are testing market acceptance; buyers are growing increasingly cautious in taking delivery, the pace of trading has slowed, and the negative feedback effect of high prices on demand has begun to show. In the short term, the market lacks sufficient momentum to sustain the advance.

Egg Market Prices

Egg Market Outlook

On the supply side, as the hot weather gradually recedes, the egg market has formally entered its seasonal peak-demand window. Layer farming profitability is currently at a relatively high level, and large farms are largely restocking on schedule as planned; flocks replenished earlier are successively entering peak laying periods, so supply is expected to grow further out. On the demand side, the Mid-Autumn Festival stocking window has opened. Food processing enterprises are purchasing in batches on an as-needed basis, with no concentrated rush buying or large-scale inventory building. Trading operations are equally cautious, with a buy-as-needed, sell-as-available strategy prevailing throughout; inventories at every link of the chain are at low levels, and the pace of end-market offtake is steady. On balance, current demand release is moderate, the dampening effect of high prices has emerged, and the market lacks momentum for a further push higher. However, with inventories low across all links and the Mid-Autumn stocking not yet finished, underlying support remains; the probability of a modest pullback in egg prices is expected to rise in the days ahead.

Egg Futures Trend

On August 19, the main Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) egg futures contract 2610 opened at 3,852, reached a high of 3,929 and a low of 3,810, and settled at 3,873, down 74 points (1.90%), with a trading volume of 786,038 lots and open interest of 291,294 lots.

Egg Price Index Analysis

According to Cold Chain Duoduo data calculations, the domestic egg spot price index stood at 5.12 on August 19, down 0.042 (0.814%) from the previous working day.

Egg Price Index Trend (chart reproduced from the original article)

Translated from the original Chinese article for reference only. Tables and charts are reproduced from the original article.