The supply and demand pressure of domestic PVC in 2023 is far less than that of PP

在微观方面，就PVC基本面而言，现在显性库存还在持续累积，节后不排除进一步破百万的可能，顶着这么大的库存去上涨如牛负重，一旦宏观预期兑现和库存去化不及预期，追涨就面临较大的风险。其次，就宏观驱动而言，可以借鉴2020年，2020-2021大宗商品牛市的上半场由国内经济修复开启，下半场则由海外经济修复接力，内外配合，共同发力推动。而今年的PVC及部分大宗工业品的行情可能要更多的靠“内循环”带动，海外因素甚至会成为拖累，所以很难对其反弹高度有太多期待，7000以上的每个整数关口都将是重要的阻力位。PVC及部分大宗工业品的上涨持续性仍需等待更多经济及地产数据的修复来印证。

At the micro level, as far as the fundamentals of PVC are concerned, the dominant inventory is still accumulating. After the holiday, the possibility of further breaking the millions is not ruled out. With such a large inventory, the price will rise like a bull. Once the macro expectation is fulfilled and the inventory is reduced to less than the expectation, there will be greater risk to catch up. Secondly, in terms of macro drive, we can learn from 2020. The first half of the 2020-2021 commodity bull market will be started by domestic economic recovery, and the second half will be driven by overseas economic recovery relay, with internal and external cooperation. However, the market of PVC and some bulk industrial products this year may be driven more by "internal circulation", and overseas factors may even become a drag, so it is difficult to expect too much of its rebound height, and each integer level above 7000 will be an important resistance level. The sustainability of the rise of PVC and some bulk industrial products still needs to be confirmed by the repair of more economic and real estate data.

因为很多预期性的东西无法证伪又无法证实，所以对于PVC单边操作而言，相对就面临着较强的不确定性和更大的风险。如果想追求更稳妥的操作，PVC和PP的价差修复可能会是今年一个风险相对较小的套利操作，PVC无论是在金融属性方面还是在超跌属性方面都要优于PP，宏观多头炒作也会更多的选择PVC而非PP。就基本面而言，2023年PVC的供需压力远小于PP，PVC全年预计能投的新装置基本就是万华（福建）一期，陕西金泰以及镇洋发展3套，预计新增产能仅为130万吨，而PP2023年的待投装置有1130万吨，其投产压力远非PVC可比。在大炼化周期下，很难对PP向上的空间有太多的期待，预计PP05和09合约在弱预期和高供应的影响下，向上驱动和空间均有限，仍旧是化工品内偏空配的品种。因此，在当下整体宏观预期向上的阶段，PP就可以作为品种间套利一个很好的空头品种去配置。就PP-PVC价差而言，一旦给到前面1800-2000的位置，就是一个很好的入场点位去做价差缩窄套利操作。

Because many anticipatory things cannot be falsified or verified, the PVC unilateral operation is relatively faced with strong uncertainty and greater risks. If you want to pursue a more stable operation, the repair of the price difference between PVC and PP may be a relatively less risky arbitrage operation this year. PVC is better than PP in terms of both financial attributes and oversold attributes, and macro bull speculation will also choose PVC more than PP. In terms of fundamentals, the supply and demand pressure of PVC in 2023 is far less than that of PP, and the new devices that PVC is expected to invest in the whole year are basically Wanhua (Fujian) Phase I, Jintai and Zhenyang in Shaanxi Province, and the new capacity is expected to be only 1.3 million tons, while the number of devices to be invested in PP2023 is 11.3 million tons, and the investment pressure is far from PVC. Under the large refining cycle, it is difficult to have too much expectation on the upward space of PP. It is expected that under the influence of weak expectation and high supply, the upward drive and space of PP05 and 09 contracts are limited, and they are still the varieties with relatively empty distribution in chemical products. Therefore, in the current stage of overall macro expectations, PP can be configured as a good short variety for inter-variety arbitrage. As far as the PP-PVC price difference is concerned, once given the position of 1800-2000, it is a good entry point to narrow the price difference for arbitrage.

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