Crude oil: China's demand is growing in the post-epidemic era

May 29, 2024, 11:58 AM

TDDchem.com

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China is the engine of the growth of global crude oil consumption. The average growth rate of China's crude oil consumption in the past 30 years is 6.3%, which is far higher than the global average of 1.04%. Since its own production is far from enough to meet the demand, China's dependence on crude oil imports is more than 70%.

中国是全球原油消费增长的引擎，近30年中国原油消费平均增速6.3%，远高于世界总体的平均水平1.04%。由于自身产量远远不足以满足需求，因此中国原油进口依赖度在70%以上。

疫情管控放开后，第一波感染高峰导致12月份中国经济活动受到严重影响，三大PMI均跌至2020年3月以来最低水平，终端需求低迷不振。去年出行下滑抑制了汽油和煤油的需求，而柴油走势与前两者分化。

After the release of epidemic control, the first wave of infection caused a serious impact on China's economic activities in December. The three major PMIs fell to the lowest level since March 2020, and terminal demand was sluggish. Last year, the decline in travel restrained the demand for gasoline and kerosene, while the trend of diesel oil was different from the former two.

后疫情时代，国际市场对于中国原油的需求抱有极大的信心，IMF预计中国2023年经济增长“一枝独秀”。但是2023年第一季度原油进口配额减少、炼化产品出口配额增加，反映国内的原油和成品油的库存压力，乐观预计中国的需求要到第二季度有实质性恢复。

In the post-epidemic era, the international market has great confidence in the demand for Chinese crude oil. The IMF expects that China's economic growth will "stand out" in 2023. However, in the first quarter of 2023, the import quota of crude oil decreased and the export quota of refined products increased, reflecting the domestic inventory pressure of crude oil and refined oil. It is optimistic that China's demand will recover substantially by the second quarter.

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