Strait of Hormuz shipping blocked global energy market facing a severe test

　　Currently, the military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran have caused shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to severe fluctuations in the international energy market. However, from the overall situation, it has not yet developed into a true oil crisis, although the market has shown signs of danger, and the subsequent trend depends on the development of the war and the status of passage through the strait. The core position of traditional Middle Eastern energy in the global energy landscape is once again highlighted, and the global energy landscape may accelerate adjustments.

　　International oil prices ride the "roller coaster"

　　The military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran have led to almost a complete halt in Gulf oil supplies, causing international oil prices to soar and exhibit significant fluctuations, posing a huge risk of triggering a global energy crisis.

　　"The world faces the risk of a comprehensive energy crisis after the United States decided to launch military action against Iran," stated a recent article in the American Atlantic Monthly.

　　Influenced by the Middle East situation, international energy prices have fluctuated significantly. According to Bloomberg, since the end of February, the escalating security situation in the Middle East has caused unease in the global crude oil market. After the US and Israel launched airstrikes and Iran announced a "ban on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz," international oil prices soared sharply, once approaching $120 per barrel, reaching the highest level since 2022.

　　On March 9, US President Trump stated that the US military action against Iran would "end soon" and announced the cancellation of some oil-related sanctions to stabilize oil prices. The finance ministers of the Group of Seven also issued a statement saying that all parties are ready to take necessary measures, including releasing reserves to support global energy supply. Concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict on the market were alleviated, and international crude oil futures prices experienced a significant reversal, falling sharply from a surge, with international oil prices once dropping to over $80 per barrel.

　　"The core inducement of this market fluctuation is the substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in history, which directly triggered extreme fluctuations in international oil prices," said Li Shaoxian, honorary director of the China-Arab States Research Institute at Ningxia University, in an interview with our reporter. "The current decline in oil prices is not a true recovery of market confidence but a typical wait-and-see state, with a highly uncertain situation behind it."

　　The statements from the US side are full of contradictions. On the 9th, Trump first hinted that the war might end soon, but hours later said the US "has not achieved enough victory," aiming for "ultimate victory." On the 10th, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that "the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz," but deleted the post minutes later.

　　Zou Zhiqiang, a researcher at the Middle East Research Center of Fudan University, pointed out in an interview with our reporter: "The military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran have led to almost a complete halt in Gulf oil supplies, causing international oil prices to soar and exhibit significant fluctuations, posing a huge risk of triggering a global energy crisis. However, oil prices have not continued to rise and remain high for a long time, influenced by various factors and contradictory dynamic information, showing a short-term surge and fall trend. Currently, it is difficult to identify this as an oil crisis, and its severity cannot be compared with the two oil crises of the 1970s."

　　Goldman Sachs predicts that if transportation bottlenecks persist, refined oil prices may reach new highs since the 21st century. Other analyses suggest that the systemic shock brought by the Middle East tensions has become the most severe global energy risk event in over 20 years.

　　Li Shaoxian pointed out: "Currently, the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues. If this state persists for four weeks, crude oil prices are likely to surge to $150 per barrel. Although a true oil crisis has not yet formed, the market has already shown signs of danger, and this high volatility and high-risk state is difficult to sustain long-term. If the blockade of the strait cannot be lifted for a long time, it will have extremely negative impacts on the global economy, with effects transmitted along the industrial chain, leading to high inflation, slowing economic growth, and a series of problems."

　　The "world oil valve" affects the nerves of the energy market

　　In recent years, the position of the Middle East in the global energy supply landscape has declined, but the linkage of the international energy market is stronger. The global energy shock caused by regional conflicts this time indicates that the Middle East still occupies a core position in the global energy landscape.

　　"Despite the rapid development of shale gas and shale oil technology in the United States in recent years, and the booming global new energy industry, the fluctuations in the energy market this time highlight that traditional energy sources such as oil and natural gas still occupy a core position in the global energy landscape. The Strait of Hormuz, as a necessary passage for nearly 1/5 of global maritime oil trade, affects the nerves of the global energy market. This also makes energy security a major issue that countries must pay attention to again," said Li Shaoxian.

　　The Strait of Hormuz stretches in a "V" shape between Iran and Oman, connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with its narrowest point only 33 kilometers wide. This limited-width waterway is the most important or even the only channel for oil exports from oil-producing countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait. The Strait of Hormuz is known as the "world oil valve," handling about 20% of global maritime oil trade, with an average daily transport of about 20 million barrels of oil. Over 90% of oil exports from major oil-producing countries along the Persian Gulf need to be completed through this channel. Currently, important oil-producing countries such as Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE have reduced production.

　　The Economist's analysis suggests that the interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is a headache for both Persian Gulf energy-exporting countries and Asian consumer countries. Countries like India, Singapore, and South Korea, although not immediately "out of oil," face great pressure. Data shows that over 70% of South Korea's crude oil supply comes from the Middle East, and about 65% to 68% of imported crude oil must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, over 95% of Japan's current crude oil imports come from the Middle East, most of which need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

　　Even the United States, which does not lack oil reserves, may be affected by price increases. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that most of the shale oil extracted in the United States is light oil. Many of its existing refineries, with relatively outdated equipment, are mainly used for refining heavy crude oil. This explains why the United States, despite exporting over 4 million barrels of crude oil daily, still needs to import about 6 million barrels daily. This means that even if the United States has achieved energy self-sufficiency, it cannot escape the impact of fluctuations in the Middle East energy market.

　　"In recent years, the international energy landscape has undergone significant changes, especially with the United States achieving energy self-sufficiency and becoming an oil and gas exporter. Overall, the position of the Middle East in the global energy supply landscape has declined. However, the linkage of the international energy market is stronger, with more complex influencing factors and internal operating logic, still serving as a fundamental factor affecting global production and supply chains and consumer markets. Even the United States, which has achieved energy independence, cannot escape the impact of fluctuations in the international energy market. The global energy shock caused by regional conflicts this time indicates that the Middle East still occupies a core position in the global energy landscape," said Zou Zhiqiang.

　　"The global economy still relies on oil and natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz," warned Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase. If the conflict expands and persists, it may lead to oil prices exceeding $120 per barrel, increasing the risk of a global economic recession.

　　The world faces a severe test

　　The core contradiction in the current global energy market remains the passage issue of the Strait of Hormuz. If the blockade of the strait further intensifies, a true oil crisis may arrive, and the global energy market and even the world economy will face a severe test.

　　Li Shaoxian analyzed: "It is worth noting that after the surge in oil prices this time, there was no market panic collapse, and there are objective reasons behind it, with the pre-war layout of oil-producing countries being one of the key factors. As early as February 28, before the conflict broke out, the situation in the Middle East had been tense, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iran had made preparations in advance, urgently doubling the loading of crude oil and quickly transporting it out of the Persian Gulf. Among them, Iran's daily loading volume on Kharg Island reached 3 to 5 times the usual level a month before the war. These pre-transported crude oils are now floating in the open sea and will be sold gradually according to market demand, serving as a 'buffer cushion' for the market. Therefore, the actual shortage level of the current oil market is not as severe as statistical data suggests, which is also one of the important reasons why oil prices have not continued to surge."

　　Countries are also actively introducing countermeasures. Li Shaoxian believes that the Trump administration's signal of possibly relaxing some oil sanctions may mean relaxing oil sanctions on Russia. Russia's oil exports do not need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and if it can release more crude oil to the international market, it will partially fill the gap in Middle Eastern oil supply and alleviate the current market tension. Additionally, the International Energy Agency issued a statement on the 11th, stating that 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves; G7 energy ministers have expressed support for using strategic oil reserves to address oil supply and market fluctuations; Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry has stated that it has requested domestic oil reserve bases to prepare for releasing reserves; the South Korean government has announced the implementation of a "oil price cap system" and other measures to stabilize domestic oil prices.

　　"From the actual effect, these measures have indeed played a certain role in calming market sentiment, but objectively speaking, compared to the daily 20 million barrels of oil trade that the Strait of Hormuz may affect, existing countermeasures can only serve as a short-term buffer and cannot fundamentally solve the supply gap problem. The core contradiction in the current global energy market remains the passage issue of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as this key channel cannot be restored to normal, the market's risk premium is difficult to truly decrease," Li Shaoxian analyzed. "The future trend of the international energy market is highly bound to the development of the Middle East war situation, and the uncertainty of the situation is still increasing. If Trump's statement that 'the war will end soon' can be fulfilled, and the passage through the strait gradually restored, oil prices are expected to return to a rational range; but if the conflict continues to escalate, or even if the Trump administration takes escort, airborne troops to control the strait coast, or US-Israel joint occupation of Iran's Kharg Island and other radical measures, it will inevitably intensify contradictions with Iran, further aggravating the blockade state of the Strait of Hormuz. At that time, a true oil crisis may arrive, and the global energy market and even the world economy will face a severe test."

　　Zou Zhiqiang also pointed out: "Due to the influence of factors such as countries releasing strategic oil reserves and Trump's statement to end the war, the current international market's concerns have been alleviated, but the regional conflict has not ended, and the interruption of Gulf energy supply it caused has not been resolved. In the short term, the international energy market is still difficult to escape the state of high tension and fluctuations, and the future trend depends on the conflict situation between the two sides and whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume passage. In the long run, this conflict highlights the global energy position of the Middle East and the strong power of geopolitical factors, prompting countries around the world to pay more attention to energy security issues, while also accelerating the pace of energy transition and promoting further adjustments in the global energy landscape."

　　"This event may have a profound impact on the global energy landscape. On one hand, the strategic position of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is once again highlighted, and its role as the 'throat' of the global energy system cannot be replaced in the short term. Countries will pay more attention to diversifying energy import channels and improving strategic oil reserve mechanisms in the future; on the other hand, this crisis will also become an important opportunity to promote the development of global new energy, with the strategic value of new energy sources such as photovoltaics, wind energy, and nuclear energy further highlighted, and countries' awareness of new energy development will continue to increase, accelerating the pace of development in the new energy industry," said Li Shaoxian.