Icelandic Headed and Gutted Cod Breaks 1,000 ISK/kg, Benchmark Grade Weekly Sales Plunge to 25 Tons(Oct 27)

Icelandic Headed and Gutted Cod Breaks 1,000 ISK/kg, Benchmark Grade Weekly Sales Plunge to 25 Tons

Source: World Food Network (shijieshipin.com)

The Icelandic cod auction market surged again in Week 42 (October 12-18). According to price tracking by the Icelandic fish auction house Reiknistofa Fiskmarkadar (RSF), headed and gutted (H&G) Atlantic cod of 5 kg and above has broken through 1,000 Icelandic krona per kilogram, and auction prices for all sizes of 2.7 kg and above have recovered from the previous week's decline, approaching historical records again.

The price movement for the benchmark 3.5-5 kg whole (ungutted) Atlantic cod was limited, with the average price approximately 30% higher than the same period in 2025. The 5 kg and above Atlantic cod consistently stayed above 900 ISK/kg (approximately 7.40 USD), with larger sizes showing relatively greater increases. What distinguishes this high-price period from previous years is that prices barely dipped during the summer coastal fishing peak season. Since the new fishing season began in September, dwindling catch volumes compounded by persistently deteriorating Icelandic weather have driven prices rapidly upward.

On the other side of the price surge, trading volumes have contracted week by week. In Week 42, only slightly over 25 tons of 3.5-5 kg whole cod were sold, 18 tons less than the previous week and less than half of the same period in 2025. All sizes combined sold 139 tons, roughly half of the volume at the start of the new fishing season on September 1. Fresh raw fish is nearly impossible to catch in nearshore waters during winter, and cod auction trading peaks typically occur at year-end, yet 2026 prices have already exceeded the peaks of the previous three years.

Haddock moved higher in tandem. RSF data shows that the 1.6-2 kg grade rose 60 ISK per kilogram in Week 42, hitting a 10-week high, reflecting both a recovery from the prior week's decline and a 40% week-on-week drop in trading volume across all grades. Whole haddock of 2 kg and above has jumped above 620 ISK/kg. Gutted haddock was priced slightly lower due to increased supply of small 1.4-1.6 kg grades from multi-day fishing trips. While haddock has not seen the obvious shortages of June and July this year, quota cut expectations have kept prices elevated. Large haddock fillets can substitute for cod in British fish and chips processing, and this substitution demand has also provided price support.

Behind the high prices lies continuously tightening quotas. The 2026 total allowable catch for Barents Sea (Northeast Arctic) cod is 285,000 tons, the lowest since 1991 and down 16% from 2025. On the Icelandic side, the Marine and Freshwater Research Institute (MFRI) previously recommended reducing the 2026/27 cod quota by approximately 1% to 201,674 tons, and cutting the haddock quota by 20% in one stroke to 63,206 tons. Iceland has been the world's largest single producer of wild Atlantic cod for two consecutive years, with an expected catch of 202,000 tons in 2027, potentially maintaining this position for a third consecutive year.

Haddock supply is expected to tighten further. The latest supply forecast from the Groundfish Forum indicates that Iceland's haddock catch will be cut by 20% next year, a reduction of approximately 16,000 tons, and prices are highly likely to remain elevated during the 2026/27 fishing season. On the Barents Sea side, the joint Russia-Norway survey has recommended increasing the 2027 cod quota by 9.7% to approximately 312,700 tons, though the official quota remains subject to confirmation by the Russia-Norway Joint Fisheries Commission.