Egg Weekly: Egg Prices Move Sideways, Awaiting Direction(Nov 5)

Egg Weekly: Egg Prices Move Sideways, Awaiting Direction

Domestic Egg Market Analysis

1.1 Egg Market Price Analysis

This week, domestic egg market quotes saw a narrow upward adjustment. As of Thursday this week, the average price of red eggs was 4.21 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from last week. The average price of pink eggs was 4.30 yuan/jin, up 0.26 yuan/jin from last week. Both red and pink egg prices maintained an upward trend, with the price spread between the two at 0.06 yuan/jin. After temperatures declined, egg production rates seasonally recovered, increasing effective egg supply. After egg prices rose and stabilized, the profitability of layer farming improved, and farmers' culling sentiment became differentiated. Some enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach to extended rearing, and the culling pace slowed. On the demand side, with the Double Eleven e-commerce festival approaching, e-commerce platform restocking was acceptable, and periodic demand saw some release.

Production area market: As of Thursday this week, the average price in main egg production areas was 4.25 yuan/jin, up 0.17 yuan/jin from last Thursday.

Sales area market: As of Thursday this week, the average price in main egg sales areas was 4.27 yuan/jin, up 0.28 yuan/jin from last Thursday.

1.2 Egg Market Price Trend Charts

1.3 Regional Egg Market Price Comparison This Week

Laying Hen Inventory and Slaughter Analysis

2.1 Inventory Analysis

In terms of total inventory, the farming side is currently in a marginally profitable state with limited profit space. Some small and medium-scale farmers are concerned about the future market outlook, with average restocking willingness and strong wait-and-see sentiment. However, large-scale enterprises mostly proceed with restocking according to established plans at a relatively steady pace, providing some price support. Overall, restocking sentiment on the farming side is differentiated, and the short-term restocking pace is expected to remain stable.

Currently, with egg price profitability having increased, some farming units are showing stronger resistance to price reductions and extending the culling period, slowing the culling pace. Meanwhile, downstream chicken product consumption is sluggish, terminal sales are slow, and slaughterhouses are cautious about purchasing at high prices with continued price-suppression intentions. Old hen prices are under pressure with a wait-and-see attitude.

Egg Demand Analysis

On the demand side, with Double Eleven approaching, e-commerce platform restocking provides some support, and periodic demand has seen some release. However, supermarket and terminal sales are average, with procurement primarily need-based, and limited capacity to absorb high prices. All stages of the supply chain are primarily selling at market pace, with normal market arrivals. Traders mostly buy and sell in quick turnover, with limited willingness to stockpile. Overall trading rhythm remains stable.

Egg Market Outlook

From the supply side, after autumn, temperatures decline and laying hen production rates recover from the summer lull, increasing daily egg output month-over-month. Recently, egg prices have been continuously testing upside, farmers' culling sentiment has slightly weakened, and some enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see approach to extended rearing.

From the demand side, in early November, supported by Double Eleven e-commerce promotions, supermarket and platform activities are boosting demand for small-grade eggs. Traders' willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has strengthened, providing short-term support for egg prices. However, the market remains in the traditional Q4 off-season, with food factories lacking centralized stocking. Household consumption is primarily need-based, and other holiday-related demand drivers are limited.

Overall, the egg market is currently in a pattern of "ample supply, off-season demand." In early November, egg prices are seeing a periodic rebound driven by low-price stimulus and Double Eleven stocking. However, the supply-demand fundamentals have not substantially improved, and the rebound's sustainability is limited. The expected adjustment range is approximately 0.30-0.50 yuan/jin, with the main production area average price projected at 3.60-3.80 yuan/jin.