Daily Macroeconomic News
The latest major global indices
The trend of International crude Oil Price and the Exchange rate of RMB against US Dollar
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Domestic news
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1. ChinaThisCCenterClass BANK Open MLFSurprisingAt the end of the month, interest rates were cut by 20 basis points
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two。 SupportThe RMB rose sharply against the US dollar yesterday, and the onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar at one point approached the 7.2 mark, up more than 600 basis points, before falling back.
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3. ChinaDongfang Buy announced last night that Dong Yuhui, its famous anchor, will leave office from now on.
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4. ChinaThe National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance formally issued documents to arrange about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support the renewal of large equipment and the trade-in of consumer goods.
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5. ChinaIn the first half of the year, China's outward non-financial direct investment reached US $72.62 billion, an increase of 16.6 per cent over the same period last year.
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International news
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1. ChinaBank of America: cooling inflationMaybe.Acceleration speedE* Federal Reserve cuts interest ratesAndDepreciationThe legal status of* USD
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two。 SupportSaudi Arabia rarely buys fuel oil from Kuwait to meet summer demand.
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3. ChinaMoody's: us GDP is expected to reach 1.4% again in the second quarter
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4. ChinaThe probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%.
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5. ChinaOpenAI to launch online search tool "SearchGPT" to challenge Google
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Domestic news
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1. ChinaThe central bank unexpectedly opened MLF at the end of the month, cutting interest rates by 20 basis points
On July 25th, the central bank launched a 200 billion yuan MLF operation by way of interest rate bidding, and the winning interest rate was 2.30%, which was 20 basis points lower than the previous one and the first reduction since August 2023. This is the second time that the central bank has carried out MLF operations in that month. At the same time, a reverse repurchase operation of 235.1 billion yuan was carried out. Some people believe that the increase in MLF operation shows that the central bank maintains reasonable and abundant liquidity, strengthens the firm attitude of economic recovery, and also shows that the reference role of MLF interest rates to LPR is gradually weakening. MLF explicitly adopts the method of interest rate bidding, and the winning interest rate will better reflect the market interest rate. MLF operating point adjustment transition period, financial institutions need to pay more attention to the mid-month liquidity.
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two。The RMB rose sharply against the US dollar yesterday, and the onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar at one point approached the 7.2 mark, up more than 600 basis points, before falling back.
Analysts believe that there are three main reasons for the sudden outbreak of Ebola virusRMBFirst of allCCenterClass BANK has recently begun to cut interest rates continuously, and the external market may have begun to brew expectations of a stronger domestic economy. Secondly, the yen has begun to strengthen one after another recently, and the linkage between the yen and the RMB has been relatively close in the past six months. Third, the dollar has continued to weaken recently. Yesterday, on landRMBAt 16:30, the renminbi closed at 7.2203 against the dollar, up 557 basis points from the previous session, closing at 7.2450 at night, and the midpoint at 7.1321, up 37 basis points against the dollar.
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3. ChinaDongfang Buy announced last night that Dong Yuhui, its famous anchor, will leave office from now on.
EAST purchaseChina announced last night that Dong Yuhui, its famous anchor, will leave office from now on..At the same time, its subsidiaryYuhui TongxingThese were sold to Dong Yuhui at a price of 76.585 million yuan. Dong Yuhui and Yu Minhong then issued open letters revealing more details. Yu Minhong said that Dong Yuhui arranged the money for the acquisition of the company, and the company gave it to Dong Yuhui. In addition to paying Dong Yuhui the promised benefits and compensation in full, Yu Minhong also sought approval from the board of directors for all remaining undistributed profits of the company.Yuhui TongxingTo Dong Yuhui. According to the announcement of Dongfang Buy, from the establishment of the company to June 30 this yearYuhui TongxingIt's 141 million yuan. EAST purchaseAlibaba also announced that he intends to buy back no more than Rmb500m of the company's shares in the future.
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4. ChinaThe National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance formally issued documents to arrange about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support the renewal of large equipment and the trade-in of consumer goods.
The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance officially issued documents recently, proposing to allocate about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support the upgrading of large equipment and the trade-in of consumer goods. In terms of equipment renewal, the scope of support will be expanded, including energy, electricity, old elevators and other areas. In the trade-in of consumer goods, the replacement and renewal of passenger cars and the decoration of old houses for individual consumers will be included in the scope of support.
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5. ChinaIn the first half of the year, China's outward non-financial direct investment reached US $72.62 billion, an increase of 16.6 per cent over the same period last year.
According to the Ministry of Commerce, China's foreign non-financial direct investment reached 72.62 billion US dollars in the first half of the year, an increase of 16.6 percent over the same period last year. The turnover of foreign contracted projects reached 72.25 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.2 percent over the same period last year, and the newly signed contracts totaled 115.54 billion US dollars, an increase of 22 percent over the same period last year.
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International news
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1. ChinaBank of America: cooling inflation may accelerate Fed interest rate cut and Dollar depreciation
Bank of America said the dollar was likely to depreciate as the Fed's rate-cutting cycle seemed closer and closer. Analysts said in a report that the continued deflationary trend in the US raised expectations that the Fed might accelerate interest rate cuts, indicating a shift in higher-than-expected inflation at the beginning of the year, which supported the case for delaying the rate cut and boosted the dollar. "as a result, we maintain expectations of a weaker dollar, including our benchmark forecast for EURUSD to reach 1.12 by the end of the year." Analysts said the dollar was also overvalued, as reflected in the bank's long-term forecasts. Bank of America expects that ratio to rise from the current 1.0851 to 1.2 by September 2026.
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two。 SupportSaudi Arabia rarely buys fuel oil from Kuwait to meet summer demand.
In July, Saudi Arabia imported fuel oil from Kuwait for the first time in more than two years to help meet peak summer electricity demand, while discounted supplies from Russia fell, according to trade sources and shipping data. Saudi Arabia imported more than 180000 metric tons (37000 barrels per day) of high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) from Kuwait, the first time Saudi Arabia has purchased fuel from Kuwait since May 2022, according to shipping analysis firm Kpler and Vortex a. Saudi Arabia"Demand for S keeps more Kuwaiti oil supplies in the Middle East, and Singapore benchmark oil prices are supported by an across-the-board decline in Middle East exports. Russian supplies still account for a large part of Saudi Arabia's fuel oil imports, reaching about 441000 tonnes in July, or about 30 per cent of total imports. However, this figure is lower than the nearly 750000 tons in the same period last year. Emil Emril Jamil, a senior analyst at LSEGOilResearch, pointed out that bids for Russia's HSFO in places such as India had prompted Saudi Arabia to shift to alternative suppliers such as Kuwait. In addition, maintenance of the SASREF refinery during the April-June period may also limit Saudi Arabia's ability to increase its fuel oil stocks before the summer.
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3. ChinaMoody's: us GDP is expected to reach 1.4% again in the second quarter
Forecasts for U.S. second-quarter GDP did vary widely before Thursday, as some recent economic data were weaker than expected, while other indicators such as retail sales and housing starts performed better. "Economic growth in the United States has slowed this year compared with the surge in 2023," wrote Zandi, chief economist at Moody's. " Moody's economic team predicts that GDP growth will reach 1.4% for the second quarter in a row, but that doesn't mean the economy is in freefall. Zandi said the recent slowdown was largely "deliberate." The Fed has kept the federal funds rate high to dampen demand, cool the overheated job market and ease wage and price pressures.
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4. ChinaThe probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%.
According to CME's Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3 per cent and the probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points is 6.7 per cent. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 88.6%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points is 11%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is 0.3%.
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5. ChinaOpenAI to launch online search tool "SearchGPT" to challenge Google
OpenAI is getting a small number of users to test a new set of search features that will answer questions with more timely information and prominent source links, the company's most immediate challenge to G00G.0 to date. The new search tool, called SearchGPT, will be released as a prototype for web browsers to provide users with an independent search experience, which can be added to ChatGPT later. OpenAI declined to disclose the timetable for SearchGPT's release, but said it would initially open it to users who signed up for the waiting list, and said it was working with creators and publishers to gather feedback on the new tool and plans to integrate the most successful search functions into ChatGPT.
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Domestic macroeconomic index
