The oil price will rise above $140 this year, demand for oil from Asia would return

原油市场上，有着“原油交易之神”美誉的全球最大石油对冲基金Andurand Capital的“掌门人”皮埃尔·安杜兰（Pierre Andurand），堪称是最富盛名的业内大佬。

In the crude oil market, Pierre Andurand, the head of the world's largest oil hedge fund, known as the "god of crude oil trading", is the most famous leader in oil industry.

在最新的媒体采访中，安杜兰重申了他去年年底作出的预测：即使2023年宏观经济背景疲软，对石油的需求仍可能在年内的某个时候飙升约4%。

In the latest media interview, Andulan reiterated his prediction made at the end of last year: even if the macroeconomic background is weak in 2023, the demand for oil may still rise by about 4% at some time in the year.

2022年，原油价格的强劲走势。安杜兰解释称，去年上半年石油市场的供应“几乎没有增长”，而需求却在恢复，同时在2月俄乌冲突升级后，市场浮现了对俄罗斯原油供应的担忧。

In 2022, the crude oil price is high. Andulan explained that the supply of the oil market in the first half of last year was "almost not growing", while the demand was recovering. At the same time, after the escalation of the Russian-Uzbekistan conflict in February, the market appeared to be worried about the supply of Russian crude oil.

当时，安杜兰还一度预测国际油价可能会达到每桶200美元，但事与愿违，油价在下半年由于美联储激进加息、美国经济衰退预期等因素大幅走低。

At that time, Andhran also predicted that the international oil price might reach $200 per barrel, but it backfired. The oil price fell sharply in the second half of the year due to the aggressive interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve and the expectation of the US economic recession.

安杜兰解释道，去年下半年油价走低主要是由于需求仍较2019年水平低了250万桶/日，其中需求不足的大部分来自航空燃料，更深层的原因是亚洲国家才刚刚开始重新开放。安杜兰认为，一旦亚洲经济体完全重新开放，油价将升至每桶140美元以上，因为市场低估了该地区可能给原油市场需求规模带来的提振程度。

Andulan explained that the decline in oil prices in the second half of last year was mainly due to the fact that the demand was still 2.5 million barrels per day lower than the level in 2019. Most of the insufficient demand came from aviation fuel. The deeper reason was that Asian countries had just begun to reopen. Andulan believed that once the Asian economies were fully reopened, the oil price would rise to more than $140 per barrel, because the market underestimated the boost that Asia might bring to the scale of crude oil market demand.

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