Russia's oil production plummeted and international oil prices rose

国际能源署（IEA）表示，随着西方国家的制裁措施挤压俄罗斯的石油供应，同时市场需求超出此前预期，明年油价可能会上涨。

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that oil prices may rise next year as western countries' sanctions squeeze Russia's oil supply and market demand may exceeds previous expectations.

IEA在油市月报中称，俄罗斯的石油产量预计将在明年第一季度末暴跌14%，从目前约1120万桶/日跌至960万桶/日。届时如果这一预测属实，可能会扭转原油期货价格近期走弱的趋势。

IEA said in the monthly oil market report that Russia's oil production is expected to plummet by 14% at the end of the first quarter of next year, from about 11.2 million barrels per day at present to 9.6 million barrels per day. At that time, if this prediction is true, it may reverse the recent weakening trend of crude oil futures prices.

今年6月以来，美、布两油几乎连月走低，仅10月小幅回升。截止发稿， 美国WTI原油期货报每桶76美元，年内最高曾达到130美元，接近腰斩；而布伦特原油期货报每桶81美元，年内也曾一度达到134美元。

Since June this year, the US and Brent oil have almost declined for consecutive months, and only recovered slightly in October. As of press release, the US WTI crude oil futures reported US $76 per barrel, reaching a peak of US $130 within the year, which was close to halving; Brent crude oil futures reported $81 per barrel, which also reached $134 during the year.

该机构在11月中看到，能源危机中的欧洲经济好于预期，以及亚洲主要经济体表现了出人意料的韧性，这些因素正在提振石油的需求。对于2023年，IEA预计全球总需求为1.016亿桶/日，较其上月的预测多出30万桶。

The agency saw in mid November that the European economy in the energy crisis was better than expected, and the major economies in Asia showed unexpected resilience. These factors are boosting the demand for oil. For 2023, IEA expects the total global demand to be 101.6 million barrels per day, 300000 barrels more than its forecast last month.

供应方面，IEA发现，在禁令生效前俄罗斯的石油出口量在持续扩大，11月攀升至710万桶/日，为近七个月来的高点。与此同时，虽然欧佩克+决定减产200万桶/日，但实际上只达成了四分之一的削减目标，即减产约50万桶/日。

On the supply side, the IEA found that Russia's oil exports continued to expand before the ban came into effect, and climbed to 7.1 million barrels per day in November, the highest level in nearly seven months. At the same time, although OPEC+decided to reduce its output by 2 million barrels per day, it actually achieved only a quarter of the reduction target, that is, about 500000 barrels per day.

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