Vietnam Basa Fish Farm-Gate Price Hits Record High of 37,000 VND/kg(Oct 20)

Vietnam Basa Fish Farm-Gate Price Hits Record High of 37,000 VND/kg

Source: World Food (shijieshipin.com)

https://www.shijieshipin.com/news/show-272732.html

Vietnam basa fish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus, locally known as "Tra fish") farm-gate prices hit a record high since data collection began in Week 41 (October 5-11). On October 13, the 800g-1.0kg specification raw material was quoted at 37,000 VND/kg (approximately $1.43), with the 1.0-1.2kg tier close behind.

China is the world's largest buyer of Vietnamese basa fish. In September, mainland China and Hong Kong combined imported 28,700 tons. The 2027 Lunar New Year falls in early February, and the spring festival stocking window for large-spec fish has already opened.

Farm-gate prices are at historical peaks, with farmers holding back sales and small-to-medium specifications in short supply, making current procurement costs the highest. Waiting until mid-November when the new crop is harvested in volume could mean missing the spring festival stocking window for large-spec fish. Farmers are growing fish to over 10 ounces (approximately 280g) to prepare for the Chinese spring festival market, tightening supply in the 120-170g and 170-220g fillet raw material tiers. A consulting firm estimates that localized supply shortages will persist through late November, with Q4 supply volumes potentially declining significantly.

Three forces are driving the price surge. First, the gap between two crop cycles - the previous crop is basically sold out while the new crop has not yet matured, creating a vacuum in harvest-spec fish. Second, "holding back sales" - during the farm-gate price uptrend, farmers tend to hold inventory awaiting higher prices, amplifying the short-term gap. Third, fry costs - 30 fish/kg specification fry has exceeded 60,000 VND/kg, with some quotes reaching 70,000 VND, while mortality rates at this stage can reach 60%. Raw fish prices thus rose from 33,000 VND in late August to 36,500 VND in September, and then to 37,000 VND for small specifications on October 13.

Beyond farm-gate prices, September export data shows traditional and emerging markets moving in opposite directions: China and Hong Kong fell 9.3% month-on-month (still up 2.7% year-on-year), the EU fell 30.3% month-on-month; the US rose 34% month-on-month to 6,070 tons but still fell 27.9% year-on-year; Brazil surged 75.6% year-on-year, and the UK grew 51.4% year-on-year. According to VASEP data, September basa fish export value still reached $214 million, up 18.6% year-on-year.

The US market decline is driven by overlapping tariffs. After the 10% temporary surtax expired, the 12.5% tariff from the Section 301 investigation and existing anti-dumping duties took effect simultaneously. The US "Restoring Domestic Market Act" (S.4945) is also preparing to set quotas and high tariffs on Vietnamese catfish. Vietnam's Agricultural Environment Report disclosed that basa fish exports to the US fell 13.9% in the first eight months, with August alone plunging over 50% year-on-year. EU market fillet FOB prices have been pushed to $3.80-$4.20/kg by raw material shortages, exceeding the late August range of $3.60-$4.00 and setting a new statistical high.

The new crop is expected to hit the market in volume in mid-November, but Vietnamese industry players disagree on the subsequent price direction. Exporter Trang expects supply to gradually improve after the new crop arrives, with small specifications still tight and prices maintaining high levels through December. Industry player Khuat bluntly states "this price is too high" and expects a correction in November. Referring to the trajectory from early 2026 - when fry once rose to 68,300 VND/kg and adult fish to 36,000 VND, and the structural shortage caused by farmers reducing fry stocking persisted throughout the year - this round of "high-priced fry to low-density stocking to harvest half a year later" cycle may repeat.

Spring festival stocking and large-spec fish preferences will continue to support prices, but the mid-November new crop volume arrival combined with processing plant purchase limits may trigger the first price correction of the year. Based on assessments from Vietnamese industry players and consulting firms, Q4 2026 farm-gate prices are highly likely to fluctuate in the 34,000-38,000 VND/kg range at high levels, with tight supply balance continuing into H1 2027. The price center determined by fry, feed, and mortality rates will shift upward compared to 2025.