Peru Cancels Second Anchovy Fishing Season, Global Fishmeal Supply Hits Decade Low(Oct 16)

Peru Cancels Second Anchovy Fishing Season, Global Fishmeal Supply Hits Decade Low

Peru's Ministry of Production has officially announced the cancellation of the second anchovy fishing season in the central-northern region. According to the survey conclusions from the Peruvian Marine Research Institute (IMARPE), the total anchovy biomass is approximately 5.1 million tons, but the juvenile proportion is as high as 79%, making commercial fishing unsustainable.

2026 Fishing Season Overview

Anchovy resources in Peru have shown a declining trend throughout 2026. The first fishing season in the central-northern region ended early, with a quota of 1.914 million tons but an actual catch of only approximately 471,000 tons, representing just 24.6% of the quota. The southern second season opened on July 1 with a quota of 251,000 tons, but cumulative production reached only 4,347 tons by August 10, after which commercial fishing activities were suspended.

Price Impact

Following the cancellation announcement, fishmeal prices surged sharply. From late September to mid-October, Peruvian premium steam fishmeal prices rose three times within half a month, surging by 1,500 yuan/ton to return to the historical high of 24,000 yuan/ton. On October 14 alone, domestic fishmeal prices increased by 500 yuan/ton, with ordinary-grade Peruvian steam fishmeal quoted at 20,900-21,000 yuan/ton and premium steam fishmeal at 23,500-24,000 yuan/ton. Domestic port inventory has declined to approximately 125,000 tons.

Global Supply Impact

According to the latest forecast from the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO) released in October, global fishmeal production in 2026 is projected to fall below 4.6 million tons, the lowest level since 2016. Fish oil production is expected to decline to 1.15 million tons, also the lowest since 2016. The reduction in Peruvian supply is the core factor driving the global production decline.

IFFO data shows that as of August 2026, cumulative fishmeal production in member countries was 45% lower than the same period in 2025, and fish oil production was 26% lower. While August raw material harvests showed some improvement, with growth in Chile, Spain, and the United States lifting overall levels above the previous year, supply from African regions, Iceland, and the North Atlantic remained weak, with Denmark and Norway essentially flat.

Peru's Critical Role

Peru's central-northern region is the world's largest anchovy producing area, supplying approximately 20% of global fishmeal and fish oil raw materials. MSICeres, a Peruvian fishmeal and fish oil trading company, reported that the latest survey estimates anchovy biomass at 5.12 million tons, a 5.18% decrease from 5.4 million tons before the second season of 2025, and approximately 25% below the long-term average. Additionally, anchovy oil content is below 1%, indicating the fish are in poor condition.

The cancellation of the second season will have far-reaching implications for the global aquaculture feed industry, as fishmeal is a critical protein ingredient in aquafeed. The supply contraction is expected to drive continued price increases, putting pressure on aquaculture production costs worldwide. China, as the world's largest fishmeal importer, has seen import inventory levels continue to decline, well below average levels as of the end of September.