Peru Blueberry Export Forecast Lowered Again to 366,000 Tons as El Nino Impact Worse Than Expected（Oct 12）

Peru Blueberry Export Forecast Lowered Again to 366,000 Tons as El Nino Impact Worse Than Expected

Fifth Forecast Revision Downward

According to the latest update from Proarandanos (Peruvian Blueberry Growers and Exporters Association), the 2026/27 season fresh blueberry export forecast has been lowered for the fifth time to approximately 366,000 metric tons, a 4.2% reduction from the September forecast of 382,000 tons and 4.4% below the previous season's 383,000 tons.

El Nino Impact More Severe Than Expected

Despite a 15% increase in planted area, export volume remains below the 2025/26 season level. As of week 38, Peru had exported 136,000 tons, up 18.7% from 115,000 tons in the same period last season. However, the association warned that this figure does not reflect the significant trend change observed in recent weeks.

Export volume has declined in each of the last three forecasts: approximately 404,000 tons in August, down to 382,000 tons in September, and now further reduced to 366,000 tons - a gap of approximately 38,000 tons or 9.4%. The September report indicated that the volume change was concentrated in the mid-to-late season, and the fifth forecast confirms this trend, with Peruvian blueberry exports declining significantly in recent weeks.

Peak Week Replaced by Plateau Period

From week 39 through year-end, the association projects total exports of approximately 229,000 tons, a 14.2% decrease from 268,000 tons in the same period of the 2025/26 season. Within this period, from week 39 to week 46, exports are projected at 108,000 tons, compared to 156,000 tons in the same period last season - a reduction of 48,000 tons or 31.2%.

In September, the association had still designated week 42 as the peak shipping week with approximately 16,500 tons. Now, the association states that rather than a peak week, the 8-week period from week 39 to week 46 will be a plateau period, averaging approximately 13,500 tons per week.

Organic Blueberry Forecast

Organic blueberry forecasts remain essentially flat compared to September. Total organic exports are projected at 24,900 tons, with the peak week expected in week 47 at approximately 1,100 tons. In the previous season, the peak occurred in week 40 at 1,900 tons.

Market Implications

The fifth forecast confirms that the El Nino phenomenon's impact has been more severe than initially expected, contrasting with the strong start to the season. This adjustment extends beyond the end-of-season total to the export concentration period, with the original peak flattened into a plateau. China imports approximately 90% of its blueberries from Peru, primarily meeting September to December demand, meaning Q4 import supply will tighten substantially.